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ubs lowers alumina price forecast amid supply surge and market shifts

UBS has revised its alumina price forecast for 2025 downward to below $400 per ton, following a rapid price decline from over $800 per ton in December 2024 due to increased supply. Factors contributing to this shift include record production rates in China and a significant rebound in bauxite imports from Guinea.Despite the forecast cut, UBS remains optimistic about aluminum's fundamental outlook, anticipating modest market deficits and a stable LME aluminum price around $2,700 per ton, while maintaining a bullish stance on companies like Norsk Hydro and Alcoa Corp.
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